NEW YORK / RankWire.AI / – The U.S. stock bull market is entering its fifth year Monday after achieving four consecutive years of gains. According to Truist analysis, the S&P 500 has increased approximately 119% since its bear-market low on October 12, 2022. The index closed that session at 3,577.03, marking its lowest close since November 2020. On Friday, it ended at 7,811.54, representing a 14.1% increase for 2026. The index also gained 1.2% over the past week.
This current bull market is the 11th since the 1950s in the historical record, and notably the seventh to last at least four years. Its 119% rise is below the average gain of 184% observed across the studied bull markets. The 2009-to-2020 cycle soared by 401%, while the 1987-to-2000 period achieved a 582% increase. These earlier cycles remain among the most significant long-term gains in the comparison.
Historically, performances during the fifth year have typically remained positive, though results have varied among individual cycles. Out of the previous 10 bull markets, six extended beyond their fourth anniversary. For those that reached a fifth year, the average return was 12%, with a median of 15%. Additionally, past data shows an average maximum drawdown of approximately 14% during fifth years. These figures are based on prior market cycles and do not predict the current market trajectory.
Corporate Earnings Support Market Growth
Corporate earnings continue to be a key factor behind the ongoing market advance. FactSet reports that third-quarter S&P 500 profits were running 29.6% higher than the same period last year as of October 9. This marks a third consecutive quarter with earnings growth exceeding 25%. The growth estimate at the end of September was 29.2%. Among 19 index companies that reported, 84% beat analysts’ average earnings forecasts, with their combined earnings surpassing estimates by 4.9%.
Analysts project robust profit growth extending into 2026, with fourth-quarter S&P 500 earnings expected to rise 27.6% from a year earlier. Full-year earnings are estimated to grow by 32.4%. Approximately 40% of upward revisions to 2026 earnings estimates come from semiconductor and hardware firms. Barclays research further indicates that these companies account for roughly 75% of the year-to-date revisions to 2027 estimates, emphasizing the technology sector’s significant influence on current earnings revisions.
Interest Rate Environment Coincides with Market Milestone
The upward trend in stocks is occurring amid rising interest rates and high U.S. government bond yields. On September 16, the Federal Reserve increased its federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%. Officials indicated that economic activity remains solid, even as inflation stays elevated. The September projections set the median economic growth rate for 2026 at 2.3%, with unemployment forecasted at 4.1%. The Fed’s upcoming policy meeting is scheduled from October 27 to October 28.
Meanwhile, long-term Treasury yields continue to stay elevated as the stock market marks its fifth year of gains. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stood at 5.24% on October 9, and the 30-year yield was at 5.60%. Despite these high borrowing costs, the S&P 500 gained 0.6% that day, closing at 7,811.54. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.8%, while the Nasdaq Composite increased by 0.6%. U.S. equities are approaching the fifth year near record levels, supported by strong earnings and higher interest rates.