NEW YORK / RankWire.AI / – U.S. consumer confidence experienced a significant decline in September, marking its lowest level since April 2014. The Conference Board announced that its Consumer Confidence Index dropped 6.7 points to 81.9, while the August figure was revised downward to 88.6. Data collected from September 1 through September 23 formed the basis of the survey. Respondents expressed more pessimism regarding current economic conditions and the outlook over the next six months. This decline represents the third consecutive month of decreased overall confidence.
The Present Situation Index fell 7.9 points, settling at 109.3 in September. This indicator captures consumer perceptions of current business and labor market conditions. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index decreased 5.9 points to 63.6, marking a third straight monthly decline. It gauges expectations related to income, employment, and business conditions in the upcoming six months. The results show concerns that extend beyond present circumstances, with households becoming less optimistic about future economic prospects.
Views on the current state of business conditions deteriorated during the month. About 18.5% of consumers considered conditions good, compared to 18.8% in August. Conversely, those describing conditions as bad increased to 20.4% from 17.3%. The assessment of the labor market also softened, with 23.6% stating that jobs were plentiful, down from 24.5% in August. Conversely, 21.9% believed jobs were hard to find, up from 20.3% in the previous month.
Rising gasoline prices push inflation expectations higher
Consumers’ expectations for inflation over the coming year also increased. The average 12-month inflation outlook rose by 0.3 percentage points to 6.1%, while the median estimate climbed to 5.1%. According to federal data, consumer prices rose 3.4% in August compared to a year earlier. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 3.9% monthly increase in gasoline prices. As of September 29, AAA estimated the national average for regular gasoline at approximately $4.46 per gallon.
The survey also indicated a decline in spending plans across several major categories. On a six-month moving average, intentions to purchase automobiles and homes both decreased. Expectations for spending on services, including hotels, movies, air travel, and amusement parks, also declined in September. Conversely, vacation plans saw an uptick, with about 42.6% of respondents planning a trip within the next six months—an increase of 0.5 percentage points from August. This rise was driven by more robust plans for domestic travel.
Outlook for business, jobs, and income growth diminishes
Expectations related to business conditions, employment, and household income continued to weaken. Only 15.9% of consumers anticipated an improvement in business conditions, down from 17.0% in August. Meanwhile, 25.4% expected conditions to worsen, up from 23.3%. Regarding employment, just 14.0% believed more jobs would become available, while 28.4% expected fewer opportunities. Income outlooks also eased; 17.9% expected their incomes to increase, compared to 15.4% who foresaw a decline over the next six months.
The Conference Board also observed more negative views on household finances. Net assessments of current family financial situations turned negative for only the second time since that metric’s inception four years ago. Confidence levels declined across all age groups on a six-month moving average, and nearly all income brackets reported lower results. Toluna conducts this monthly online survey for The Conference Board. The preliminary September data closed on September 23, with the next Consumer Confidence Index report scheduled for October 27.